Incentives or Taxes? A Qualitative Study on Autonomous Vehicle Policies

Incentives or Taxes? A Qualitative Study on Autonomous Vehicle Policies

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.62844/jerf.28

Keywords:

Autonomous Vehicles, Autonomous Driving Technologies, Externalities, Taxation, Incentives

Abstract

This study examines policy approaches to the taxation and incentivization of autonomous vehicle (AV) technologies. The scope includes not only the social and economic impacts of AVs but also their potential fiscal consequences for public revenues. The main objective is to analyze the technological features and societal perceptions of AVs, evaluate their position within the current tax system, and discuss possible compensatory mechanisms for expected revenue losses. A qualitative research design was adopted, with semi-structured interviews conducted among tax inspectors, revenue experts, and academics. Data were analyzed using thematic analysis, enabling the development of findings grounded in stakeholder perspectives. Results indicate that most participants support the incentivization of AVs, while some argue that they should be taxed as luxury goods due to their high costs. Furthermore, the findings reveal that the widespread adoption of AVs could lead to significant revenue losses in areas such as fuel taxes, motor vehicle taxes, purchase-related Special Consumption Tax and Value Added Tax, and traffic fines. Overall, the study emphasizes the need for a balanced taxation–incentive framework to facilitate the diffusion of AV technologies while safeguarding fiscal sustainability.

References

Adler, M., Peer, S., & Sinozic, T. (2018). Autonomous, Connected, Electric Shared Vehicles (ACES) and Public Finance: An Explorative Analysis (SSRN Scholarly Paper No. 3323618). https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3323618

Anderson, J. M., Kalra, N., Stanley, K. D., Sorensen, P., Samaras, C., & Oluwatola, O. A. (2016). Autonomous vehicle technology: A guide for policymakers. Rand Corporation.

Atkins, W. (2016). Research on the impacts of connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs) on traffic flow. Stage 2: Traffic Modelling and Analysis Technical Report.

Braun, V., & Clarke, V. (2006). Using thematic analysis in psychology. Qualitative Research in Psychology, 3(2), 77–101. https://doi.org/10.1191/1478088706qp063oa

Chen, B., Chen, Y., Wu, Y., Xiu, Y., Fu, X., & Zhang, K. (2023). The Effects of Autonomous Vehicles on Traffic Efficiency and Energy Consumption. Systems. https://openreview.net/forum?id=PxyyfJrZTP&referrer=%5Bthe%20profile%20of%20Kai%20Zhang%5D(%2Fprofile%3Fid%3D~Kai_Zhang16)

Daily, M., Medasani, S., Behringer, R., & Trivedi, M. (2017). Self-Driving Cars. Computer, 50(12), 18–23. https://doi.org/10.1109/MC.2017.4451204

Deloitte. (2019). Automotive Consumer Study Advanced Vehicle Technologies. https://www.odmd.org.tr/folders/2837/categorial1docs/2530/Deloitte%20Automotive%20Consumer%20Study.pdf

Ercan, T., Onat, N. C., Keya, N., Tatari, O., Eluru, N., & Kucukvar, M. (2022). Autonomous electric vehicles can reduce carbon emissions and air pollution in cities. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 112, 103472. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2022.103472

Fox, W. F. (2020). The Influence Of Autonomous Vehicles On State Tax Revenues. National Tax Journal, 73(1), 199–234. https://doi.org/10.17310/ntj.2020.1.06

Fujiu, M., Morisaki, Y., & Takayama, J. (2024). Impact of Autonomous Vehicles on Traffic Flow in Rural and Urban Areas Using a Traffic Flow Simulator. Sustainability. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16020658

Gelir İdaresi Başkanlığı. (2025a). Motorlu Taşıtlar Vergisi Kanunu. https://gib.gov.tr/mevzuat/kanun/441

Gelir İdaresi Başkanlığı. (2025b). Özel Tüketim Vergisi Tutarları ve Oranları. https://cdn.gib.gov.tr/api/gibportal-file/file/getFileResources?objectKey=arsiv/yardim-kaynaklar/yararli-bilgiler/ozel-tuketim-vergisi-oranlari/24072025_II_sayili_liste.pdf

Guerrero-Ibañez, J., Contreras-Castillo, J., Amezcua-Valdovinos, I., & Reyes-Muñoz, A. (2023). Assistive Self-Driving Car Networks to Provide Safe Road Ecosystems for Disabled Road Users. Machines, 11(10), 967. https://doi.org/10.3390/machines11100967

Heineke, K., & Kampshoff, P. (2019). Mobility’s autonomous future: Autonomous vehicles hold the promise of massive social benefits—And industry disruption [In The trends transforming mobility’s future]. https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/the-trends-transforming-mobilitys-future

Iravani, H., Anderson, A., & Bevan, A. (2018). Autonomous Vehicles: Rethinking Traffic Congestion Solutions in Cities. Journal of Geotechnical and Transportation Engineering, 4.

Massar, M., Reza, I., Rahman, S., Abdullah, S. M. H., Jamal, A., & Al-Ismail, F. (2021). Impacts of Autonomous Vehicles on Greenhouse Gas Emissions—Positive or Negative? International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 18. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18115567

Metz, D. (2018). Developing Policy for Urban Autonomous Vehicles: Impact on Congestion. Urban Science, 2(2), 33. https://doi.org/10.3390/urbansci2020033

Miles, M. B., & Huberman, A. M. (1994). Qualitative Data Analysis: An Expanded Sourcebook (2nd Edition). SAGE Publications, Inc.

Ministry of Industry and Technology. (2022). Analysis Report on the Current Situation of Autonomous Vehicles [Report]. Republic of Türkiye, Ministry of Industry and Technology. https://hgm.uab.gov.tr/uploads/pages/akilli-ulasim-sistemleri-aus/otonom-araclar-mevcut-durum-analizi-raporu.pdf

Ministry of Treasury and Finance. (2025). General government budget revenues (Ecode4) Dataset. https://ms.hmb.gov.tr/uploads/sites/2/2025/06/General-Government-Budget-Revenues-Ecode4-7bf22b57ea9a606a.xls

Mwamba, I. C., Labi, S., & Sinha, K. (2023). Highway Financing in the Era of Electric, Connected, and Automated Vehicles: A Distance-Based Alternative to the Fuel Tax (SSRN Scholarly Paper No. 4397006). Social Science Research Network. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4397006

Nadafianshahamabadi, R., Tayarani, M., & Rowangould, G. (2021). A closer look at urban development under the emergence of autonomous vehicles: Traffic, land use and air quality impacts. Journal of Transport Geography, 94, 103113. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2021.103113

U.S. Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. (2017). Automated Driving Systems 2.0: A Vision for Safety (No. DOT HS 812 442). U.S. Department of Transportation. https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.gov/files/documents/13069a-ads2.0_090617_v9a_tag.pdf

Nazari, S., Gowans, N., Abtahi, M., & Rabbani, M. (2025). Powertrain Hybridization for Autonomous Vehicles: Fuel Efficiency Perspective in Mixed Autonomy Traffic. IEEE Transactions on Transportation Electrification, 11(1), 4010–4023. https://doi.org/10.1109/TTE.2024.3451431

Neufville, R., Abdalla, H., & Abbas, A. (2022). Potential of Connected Fully Autonomous Vehicles in Reducing Congestion and Associated Carbon Emissions. Sustainability, 14(11), 6910. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14116910

Park, J. E., Byun, W., Kim, Y., Ahn, H., & Shin, D. K. (2021). The Impact of Automated Vehicles on Traffic Flow and Road Capacity on Urban Road Networks. Journal of Advanced Transportation, 2021(1), 8404951. https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/8404951

Rafael, S., Correia, L. P., Lopes, D., Bandeira, J., Coelho, M. C., Andrade, M., Borrego, C., & Miranda, A. I. (2020). Autonomous vehicles opportunities for cities air quality. Science of The Total Environment, 712, 136546. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.136546

Rafael, S., Fernandes, P., Lopes, D., Rebelo, M., Bandeira, J., Macedo, E., Rodrigues, M., Coelho, M. C., Borrego, C., & Miranda, A. I. (2022). How can the built environment affect the impact of autonomous vehicles’ operational behaviour on air quality? Journal of Environmental Management, 315, 115154. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.115154

Ratner, S. (2018). Taxation of Autonomous Vehicles in Cities and States. The Tax Lawyer, 71(4), 1051–1076.

R.Gibbs, G. (2007). Analytic Quality and Ethics. In Analyzing Qualitative Data (pp. 90–104). SAGE Publications, Ltd. https://doi.org/10.4135/9781849208574

SAE International. (2021). SAE J3026 Levels of Driving Automation. https://www.sae.org/standards/content/j3016_202104/

Shao, Y., & Sun, Z. (2021). Eco-Approach With Traffic Prediction and Experimental Validation for Connected and Autonomous Vehicles. IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems, 22(3), 1562–1572. https://doi.org/10.1109/TITS.2020.2972198

Tamil Selvan, B., & Srirangarajalu, N. (2023). Self-driving car. International Journal of Engineering Technology and Management Sciences, 7(4), 275–280. https://doi.org/10.46647/ijetms.2023.v07i04.038

Turkish Statistical Institute. (2025). Road Traffic Accident Statistics, 2024. https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=Road-Traffic-Accident-Statistics-2024-54056&dil=2

Wang, J., Zhang, L., Huang, Y., & Zhao, J. (2020). Safety of Autonomous Vehicles. Journal of Advanced Transportation, 2020(1), 8867757. https://doi.org/10.1155/2020/8867757

Wang, N., Wang, X., Palacharla, P., & Ikeuchi, T. (2017). Cooperative autonomous driving for traffic congestion avoidance through vehicle-to-vehicle communications. 2017 IEEE Vehicular Networking Conference (VNC), 327–330. https://doi.org/10.1109/VNC.2017.8275620

Wu, C., Bayen, A. M., & Mehta, A. (2018). Stabilizing Traffic with Autonomous Vehicles. 2018 IEEE International Conference on Robotics and Automation (ICRA), 1–7. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICRA.2018.8460567

Ye, L., & Yamamoto, T. (2019). Evaluating the impact of connected and autonomous vehicles on traffic safety. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 526, 121009. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2019.04.245

Zhang, L., Zhang, T., Peng, K., Zhao, X., & Xu, Z. (2022). Can Autonomous Vehicles Save Fuel? Findings from Field Experiments. Journal of Advanced Transportation. https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/2631692

Zhou, R., Zhang, G., Huang, H., Wei, Z., Zhou, H., Jin, J., Chang, F., & Chen, J. (2024). How would autonomous vehicles behave in real-world crash scenarios? Accident Analysis & Prevention, 202, 107572. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2024.107572

Published

2025-09-30 — Updated on 2025-09-30

Versions

How to Cite

Cengiz, Y., & Saruç, N. T. (2025). Incentives or Taxes? A Qualitative Study on Autonomous Vehicle Policies: Incentives or Taxes? A Qualitative Study on Autonomous Vehicle Policies. Journal of Economic Research Foundation, 2(2), 109–135. https://doi.org/10.62844/jerf.28